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When investors get cocky, they end up borrowing money to invest in the stock market, via margin accounts.  The above outstanding chart, created by Doug Short, reflects that margin debt remains near record levels. 

Why could this be important?  The last two times in the past 13-years, when margin debt was this high the S&P 500 declined 50% in value.  Does it mean SPY will decline 50% again? NOPE!!!

If history is a guide, it does reflect that stocks are above average in risk at this time!