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Suggested to pick up the long bond, TLT on support line (1) at (2), after the 20% decline in prices since 9/1. Support is still in place, yet not much of a bounce has taken place so far!
Game Plan…continue to own TLT and use the support line as the sell trigger.
Aleks….TLT remains above rising support. Have to say was very umimpressed with TLT yesterday, when stocks has such a hard day!
Hi Chris,
can you please provide updated chart on TLT?
Is there any known relation between US dollar index and bonds?
Thanks
Aleks
Mike…I use Metastock, which has seemed to be pretty accurate to me over the past 15 years that I have owned it. I do convert chart to “semi-log scale” which might account for some difference in appearance. Long-term line in the sand as an example in the long-bond, is the 17-year channel that has been in place. Short-term… everyone has a different view of this, per time frames. Many types of bonds, IEF, TLT, TIP, LQD and EEM are on key support right now…these news from the mid-east going to cause a bounce? Bond futures are up about 1% today.
Chris,
What data source are these charts from? Unless I am hallucinating the price and time points don’t match up to the charts from stockcharts.com for TLT.
In a situation like this how do you assess long-term trend versus intermediate and short-term trend? The intermediate-term trend appears solidly down, and in the short-term, price support at 90 has been broken to my eye
Gary….If the markets act as normal, (which becomes a question) yes TLT can be viewed as a hedge to the long positions.
Chris,
Aside from the potential for a rally in TLT, doesn’t TLT provide a good hedging tool for all the long equity positions (MDY, XLE, etc)?