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Basic Materials ETF (IYM) has recouped 50% of its recent swift decline and is hitting a few resistance lines at (1), as well as creating a rather bearish upside wick pattern, so far today.
When IYM broke key support back in 2008, that is when the broad market picked up downside momentum. Don’t let the price action of IYM going forward be overlooked!
Mark…Would keep tight stops on the Bull market leader.
Chris: if shorting, are you also selling AAPL?
I notice that long bonds (TLT) and GLD have both been the exact opposite of stocks for the past month. The inverse TBF falls right on top of the SP500. Maybe TLT is a non-short way to short.
Interesting. Market finished down over 5% in August. I have the SPX down 5% or more in a month 64x dating back to 1950. In such months the market posted a high in the following month that exceeded the previous month close in 62 out of 64 of those cases. The average rally from that previous month close to the next month’s intra-month high was ~270 bps, which, ironically, would put us right around 1250 on the SPX.
Interestingly, 30% of the time, the market put its intra-month peak in that subsequent month on either the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of the month. 54% of all intra-month peaks in that subsequent month took place between the 1st and the 10th. Most important, the average decline from that intra-month peak to the intra-month low is ~850 bps. Given that the SPX technical work has a set-up to cut longs / be short at ~1250, that implies will likely retest, in short order, the 1120-1130 region in the not too distant future it seems…
hi again Chris:I got in s erly on shorting… i will have my training wheels on for quite some time…
thanks for the great calls..
Denis
Billy… Gald you enjoyed it and good reading between the lines! With such keen eye sight, one name I can’t call you is “Helen!” 😉
Due to this chart, Premium Members are owners of the same ETF! Heck of a bearish upside wick in many areas today. Aside from IYM, favorite broad market weakness play is the Russell 2000.
Appreciate your viewership and comments,
Chris
Chris,
Bets pic for a chart ever! I actually laughed out loud. And yes, I’m able to read between the lines and loading up on SMN.
Billy