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Cattle have done very well over the past 3 to 4 years. Currently they are are top of a 20-year channel and are testing a key rising support line drawn from the 2009 lows.
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RWM….Thanks for your viewership and outstanding comments!
My brother in law owns a small dairy operation, milks 3,000 head a day. He has some interesting stories like yours to share!
Chris
I am 77 years young, have been in cattle business 70 of those years.
Once sold a fat “show” steer for $1.00/lb in 1952. By 1972 had 300 momma
cows. Fats were $0.30/lb. Now I have seen fats at $1.30/lb and
young pairs (cow with calf at side, for you chair riders) bring $2500.00.
At 6 mo calf will bring $750.00 weighing 500 lb. It takes 10 acers to
carry a cow ( + calf for 6 mo), that’s $10,000.00 in real estate cost.
Plus $100.00 winter feed, plus bull cost, plus labor, plus death loss.
You figure the ROA. How long do you think the cow/calf operators
will last?
Aaron…good to hear from you. Have been under the weather for a while, sorry about the lack of response to yours and other comments.
RWM looks great the last two days for you. Yes a “cow” indicator does exsist….some freinds call it the “Kimble Cow Call” 😉 Cattle as you know are off over 10 since the highs around 130.
In the past grain and cattle weakness have suggested weakness in other areas was to come!
The “Mixed Signal” post reflected that while the 500 index was up a few percent from last May’s highs, the CRX commodity index was down over 18%, reflecting global weakness. Is a game of “Catch-Up” going to take place. Stocks going to catch up with Commodities to the down side or Commodities going to scream higher and catch stocks? I wonder if you can guess which way I think this will play out?
Thanks again Aaron for your great comments and viewership,
Chris
Hi Chris,
Thanks for all your insight and advice.
Looks like there are quite a few indicators starting to point south.
I really do not like the fact that the market whipsaws.
The constant dilemma of sell now, buy now, what to sell, what to buy, etc..
I have been sticking to small positions lately. Buying at bullish reversals wicks and watching for gaps.
Isn’t there a “cow” indicator that has lead markets?
I know you wrote of this in the past.
I also know that things will get ugly when the “sugar rush” wears off.
I decided to open a small position in TVIX @ 6.80 hoping that the gap @ 10.00 gets filled.
I also decided to buy some RWM at 25.55 since a gap formed, RSI(5) was oversold and price pierced through lower BB (10,2). Set stop loss @ entry price. Let’s hope that there are no huge gaps to the upside.
Anyway, I read your blog everyday.
Thanks for all your effort
Aaron