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This chart looks at Crude Oil over the past couple of decades, on a monthly basis.
Crude Oils large decline over the past 8 months took it down to its Fibonacce 23% retracement level and a support line at the same time. The large decline has driven monthly momentum down to levels not seen since the late 1990’s.
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This chart compares the S&P 500 to Energy ETF (XLE). When the ratio is heading higher, the S&P 500 is reflecting strength over XLE. As you can see the ratio has just experienced one of its sharpest 9 month rallies in the past 20-years. This rally drove the ratio to the top of a rising channel and momentum reached the highest levels ever recently.
Now the ratio and momentum could be breaking support. If this is a new trend by the ratio, being long XLE and Short the S&P could pay off, just as the opposite trade has paid off for the past nine months!
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